基于SVMD与改进牛顿-拉夫逊优化的工作面涌水量预测模型
DOI:
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

西安科技大学

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

TD742

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金资助项目(42177174),陕西煤业化工集团科研基金资助项目(2024SMHK-J-C-J-58)


Forecasting model for water inflow at working faces based on SVMD and improved Newton-Rafson-optimized models
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Xi'2.'3.an University of Science and Technology

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    针对煤矿工作面顶板涌水量时序数据强非平稳、非线性特征导致传统预测模型精度不足的问题,提出一种粒子群优化逐次变分模态分解-改进牛顿-拉夫逊优化Transformer(PSO-SVMD-ENRBO-Transformer)的双优化组合预测模型。采用PSO算法以平均包络熵最小化为目标,自适应寻优SVMD的带宽约束参数,将原始涌水量序列分解为多个平稳性强的本征模态函数分量,提出融合Cubic混沌逆向学习初始化、自适应牛顿-拉夫逊搜索规则与莱维飞行扰动的改进牛顿-拉夫逊优化(ENRBO)算法,对Transformer超参数进行全局寻优,利用优化后的Transformer对各分量独立预测并重构得到最终结果。以彬长矿区某矿204工作面实测数据进行验证,结果表明:该模型测试集拟合优度R2达0.98,均方根误差(RMSE)为8.59m³·h-1,实现了从传统模型两位数误差到一位数的数量级提升。与BPNN、CNN、LSTM等传统模型及不同分解方法的对比实验、消融实验和相邻工作面泛化验证均表明,该模型具有更高的预测精度与泛化能力,对类似地质条件矿井的涌水量预测及水害防治具有借鉴与指导作用。

    Abstract:

    To address the issue of insufficient accuracy in traditional prediction models caused by strong non-stationary and nonlinear characteristics of coal mine working face roof water inrush time series data, a dual optimization combination prediction model combining particle swarm optimization with successive variational modal decomposition and improved Newton-Rafson-Modified Transformer (PSO-SVMD-ENRBO-TRANSFORMER) is proposed. Using PSO algorithms to minimize average envelope entropy and adaptive optimization bandwidth constraint parameters of SVMD, the raw water inrush sequence is decomposed into multiple stationary intrinsic modal function components. An improved Newton-Rafsonian optimization (ENRBO) algorithm integrating Cubic chaotic inverse learning initialization, adaptive Newton-Rafsonian search rules, and Levey flight perturbations is proposed to perform global optimization of Transformer hyperparameters. Using the optimized Transformer, each component is independently predicted and reconstructed to obtain the final results. Using measured data from the 204 working face of a mine in the Binchang mining area, the results show that the model test set fits the goodness of R2 to 0.98, and the root mean square error (RMSE) is 8.59 m³·h-1, achieving an order of magnitude improvement from two-digit errors in traditional models to single-digit errors. Comparative experiments with traditional models such as BPNN, CNN, LSTM, and different decomposition methods, ablation experiments, and validation of adjacent working faces all show that this model has higher prediction accuracy and generalization capability, providing reference and guidance for predicting water inflow volume and water hazard prevention in mines under similar geological conditions.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

王磊,侯恩科,陈青山,等. 基于SVMD与改进牛顿-拉夫逊优化的工作面涌水量预测模型[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2026-05-28
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-29
  • 录用日期:2026-09-09
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期:
×
关于抵制伪造参考文献学术不端行为的声明
关于规范使用生成式人工智能的声明
喜报|《科学技术与工程》3篇论文成功入选 “第二十八届中国科协年会影响力提名论文”
2026年会通知 | “技术经济学驱动智能经济生态构建与治理变革”——中国技术经济学会第三十三届学术年会(2026)会议通知暨征文启事(第一轮)
亟待确认版面费归属稿件,敬请作者关注