考虑多边形磨耗的机车车轮竞争失效可靠性分析
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1.兰州交通大学 机电工程学院;2.兰州交通大学 电子与信息工程学院;3.中国铁路哈尔滨局集团有限公司 哈尔滨车辆段

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U266

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国家自然科学基金(72361019);甘肃省重点研发计划项目(23YFGA0050)


Competing-failure reliability analysis of locomotive wheels considering polygonal wear
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1.School of Mechatronic Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou;2.School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University;3.Harbin Rolling Stock Depot, China Railway Harbin Group Co., Ltd., Harbin

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    摘要:

    为解决现有机车车轮可靠性分析主要考虑自然退化和随机冲击,而对多边形磨耗及过程间依赖关系考虑不足的问题,提出一种考虑多边形磨耗及多过程相互依赖的机车车轮竞争失效可靠性模型。以轮缘厚度和踏面直径为关键性能指标,采用广义非线性Wiener过程描述其非线性随机退化,并利用共享脆弱因子刻画两类退化过程之间的相关性;采用多状态Markov过程描述车轮多边形状态演化,将多边形磨耗引入自然退化速率和随机冲击过程,同时考虑自然退化、随机冲击与多边形状态演化之间的相互依赖;结合EM算法对车轮实测退化数据进行参数估计,并采用Monte Carlo方法计算系统可靠度。结果表明,考虑全部过程间依赖关系时车轮可靠度衰减最快,忽略多边形磨耗或过程间依赖关系均会使可靠度不同程度提高,其中忽略多边形磨耗时可靠度曲线增大幅度更为明显;当可靠度为0.9和0.5时,对应寿命里程分别为14.03×10^4 km和20.28×10^4 km。与未考虑多边形磨耗的模型相比,考虑多边形磨耗后车轮可靠度衰减加快;其与自然退化、随机冲击之间的相互依赖会进一步促进损伤累积。将多边形磨耗及过程间依赖关系纳入竞争失效模型,有助于提高机车车轮可靠性评估的合理性,研究结果可为机车车轮检修维护决策提供参考。

    Abstract:

    In order to address the insufficient consideration of wheel polygonal wear and inter-process dependencies in existing reliability analyses of locomotive wheels, which mainly focus on natural degradation and random shocks, a competing-failure reliability model for locomotive wheels considering polygonal wear and mutual dependencies among multiple processes was proposed. Flange thickness and tread diameter were selected as the key performance indicators, and a generalized nonlinear Wiener process was employed to characterize their nonlinear stochastic degradation, while a shared frailty factor was introduced to describe the dependence between the two degradation processes. A multi-state Markov process was used to model the evolution of wheel polygonal wear states. Polygonal wear was incorporated into the natural degradation rate and random shock process, and the mutual dependencies among natural degradation, random shocks, and polygonal wear evolution were further considered. The EM algorithm was applied to estimate model parameters based on measured wheel degradation data, and the Monte Carlo method was employed to calculate system reliability. The results show that the wheel reliability decreases fastest when all inter-process dependencies are considered. Neglecting either polygonal wear or inter-process dependencies leads to an increase in the estimated reliability to varying degrees, with a more pronounced increase in reliability when polygonal wear is ignored. When the reliability levels are 0.9 and 0.5, the corresponding life mileages are 14.03×10^4 km and 20.28×10^4km, respectively. Compared with the model without considering polygonal wear, the reliability of the wheel decreases more rapidly when polygonal wear is taken into account, and the mutual dependencies of polygonal wear with natural degradation and random shocks further promote damage accumulation. It is concluded that incorporating polygonal wear and inter-process dependencies into the competing-failure model can improve the rationality of locomotive wheel reliability assessment and provide a reference for maintenance decision-making.

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段志行,李刚,齐金平,等. 考虑多边形磨耗的机车车轮竞争失效可靠性分析[J]. 科学技术与工程, , ():

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  • 收稿日期:2026-06-17
  • 最后修改日期:2026-09-15
  • 录用日期:2026-09-17
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